As we move into the latter half of 2024, the U.S. industrial market is showing signs of moderation. Although the national vacancy rate is anticipated to remain close to its 20-year average of 7.1%, the upcoming 6 to 12 months may be the most difficult period for the market in the next five years.
National industrial real estate trends
- U.S. industrial net absorption has remained positive but has noticeably decelerated over the past six months.
- The influx of new supply is expected to increase vacancies in the short term, which many believe will lead to the slowest rent growth since 2012.
- U.S. industrial rent growth has slowed from the record highs seen during the pandemic. There is a risk that rent growth may fall below pre-pandemic levels in the coming months.
- The U.S. industrial market is approaching the end of a record-making development phase. U.S. industrial construction starts peaked in mid-2022. Since peaking, starts have been on a steady decline due to higher short-term interest rates and reduced absorption rates.
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